Vortex Wars Probabilities

[BetaGen]

Vortex wars probabilities: Attack, defense bonuses and boosts from the Attacker's point of view:

Legend:
Red - Bad for Attacker
Green - Good for Attacker
The only value that did not change (no bonus and both boosts applied)

Everything is rounded to full%, therefore this is not completely accurate, but for the purposes of realizing probabilities it is more than enough. The only part I'm not sure about is Thunder boost vs Thunder shield, but it's likely to be okay. Correct me if someone see's any mistakes.

EDIT(1) Just for the fun - the Pumpkin scenario. This is what you get for that extra 5%spawn (compared to insectoids)

And le grand finale! Pumpkins vs Angels/Reptiles or Vampires/Dragons

EDIT(2) 100% is not actually 100%, and is 0% is not actually 0%. It just shows it's very likely or very unlikely (Thanks Bladesam)
EDIT(3) Thunder boost and shield are correct within a 2% margin (Thanks ArcticShadow)

[Bladesam]

Just one thing, your calculations for the battles don't seem to take into account the best possible roll for the defender and the worst possible roll for the attacker. For instance, in the first frame, a 1 on defense could possibly beat a 5 attacking however unlikely. Also, for the 2's column for defense, it is always possible for a 2 to beat anything. It is just incredibly unlikely that it will do so always.

You might want to correct that, but I don't know how you figured the rounding for the percentages, so I might be wrong taking that into account. (However, there still is a chance, so it should be at most a 99% chance of winning.) (And I just picked 99% out of that hat so to speak. I haven't done the math on it, so it might come closer to another number.)

Just like to add: Great job with the tables! Very impressive that you would take the time to do that. Thank you very much.

[ArcticShadow]

It notes that he rounds to the nearest full %. So in the examples you mentioned (aka a 2 beating an 8-- the probability is rounded to 0 although the possibility does exist (barely.))

Anyways, nice work-- much more complete and easier to read than the other threads. Did check on the Thunder VS Shield Boost-- only tested a few to see if your numbers were correct, and getting around the area but off a few %. Ex. 8v8 getting ~47.72% (so 48% if rounded.) 7v8 ~19.30%. 8v7 ~77.20%.

Also, the numbers for the thunder boost and shield boost by themselves are off a bit as well (by a bigger margin.) 8v8 is ~72% for lightning boost. 8v8 with shield is ~22.2%. Looks like you put a lot of work into this, and looks great-- just numbers for the graphs in the right column need to be tinkered with.

[BelgarionRiva]

http://www.vortexwars.com/forum/viewtop ... f=4&t=1107

[BetaGen]

I know, I just made it visually more comfortable to look at and compared them all to the "no boost/no race" one and added a few tables that were missing

[BetaGen]

A little update for those wondering if the terminators are worth it:

It should seem obvious that 7v8/6v7/5v6/4v5/3v4 and 2v3 have a devastating increase in attacking power

[Awesome400]

All of that math can be overruled with someone with a LOT of luck.

[songok]

very usefull post!

byt the way, this might not be the best place to ask but.. if there a formula to know how many units are loss in attrition?

actually here an average would be really good, something like the charts you have made but saying:

if you attack an 8 with your 5 he will on average lose 3 units, and so on.

for both the attacker winning and losing (its annoying when you want to lower an enemy 8 with your 5 and then you lose 4 units and he gets to keep a 7 or something high like that

[BetaGen]

I would want to know that, but don't know the system behind the calculation

[Darkas]

You can find some probabilities there to compare the exactitude of yours (check my posts in this thread).

- D