Upgrade Disable Compromise

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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby techgump » Mon Oct 24, 2011 11:32 pm

Boosts can be effective, and yes of course beaten too. It is not invincibility. The helpfulness of it is practically nothing if the difference between opposing territories is greater than one. Otherwise, it has saved me several times.
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby Secondwind » Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:36 pm

Going from a nearly 50/50 to almost 75/25 (ties throw this off slightly depending on attacker/defender) is a massive difference, and it can make the difference between 7/8 7x6-8=34 vs 8x6-9=39

1-34 twice vs 1-39 will win more than 50/50 no matter the rolling method.

I'm too lazy to do the math for probabilities, especially without knowing if the roll is Nd6 or if he does a 1d(Nx6) where N is the number of soldiers. If it's 1d6 per unit numbers towards the middle of possible outcomes are more likely, and it influences the probability heavily. If it's 1dN the reroll is massively favored, if it's Nd6 due to the distribution of rolls it becomes less likely to change the outcome. Feel free to look up the differences between something simple like 2d6 and 1d11+1 or 1d12, they're quite large, and as you add more dice it gets more and more likely to stay 'average'.

Assuming Nd6 you are more likely to win than lose 7v8 and massively more likely to win 8v8. If it's 1d(Nx6) then you are more likely to win 5v8 I think, I'm too lazy to do the math for it, I'm almost certain you'd win 6v8 more often than lose though.

Now if anyone wants to try and tell me that isn't a massive advantage, again, I'll call you an idiot. 'can' beat it, sure, if your opponent is an idiot, attacked by multiple players or you're exceedingly lucky/he is unlucky, then yes you might be able to eek out a victory.
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby techgump » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:17 pm

Going from a nearly 50/50 to almost 75/25


What are these numbers? And where are you getting them from?
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby Lopdo » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:23 pm

he is too lazy to do the math but he dares to call anyone that questions him idiot, go figure
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby Darkas » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:52 pm

Let's put on some real number:

Chance of winning a 8v8 attacking with no bonus is 47.1%, therefore the reroll gives you for ONE battle 72% chance of winning, not bad.

Winning a 7v8, sill attacking is 27.4%, so with a reroll it's 52.7.

Now that we put some real numbers, yeah, it's quite efficient... but that's actually what it's design for.

So go buy some and use them wisely, or just waste them as everybody seems to do and run out of it... your pick.

Remember that you can only have 3 per battle and that each costs between 20 and 15 shards, so if you waste 'em, you start losing shards on a game.

I still don't see why it's a problem. I personally don't use them a lot, but... hell, it's the game ! More possibilities more fun =)
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby techgump » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:14 pm

Chance of winning a 8v8 attacking with no bonus is 47.1%, therefore the reroll gives you for ONE battle 72% chance of winning, not bad.

1. where does "47.1%" come from too?
2. Your odds do not increase each time you roll. They are the same odds, each roll. This is math 101. If you roll a 6 sided die, the odds of getting a 6 is 1/6. If you roll the die again, the odds of getting a 6 are 1/6. The odds do not change, no matter how many times you roll.

Winning a 7v8, sill attacking is 27.4%, so with a reroll it's 52.7.

Same questions/points for this statement.

Either way, the point is that the boosts can help... but the odds are not change at all roll to roll. They are the same. All it is, is a second roll with the same odds. This can be useful when used correctly, and a waste when not. As I stated before, it seems more beneficial when going against equals or at best, 1 off equal. Beyond that, it is most likely to lose both times 2 off or more, as a 5 to a 3, or 8 to a 6, etc would typically do. Again, just one more chance, with the same odds.
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby Lopdo » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:15 pm

odds for each roll remain same, but odds of result (consisting of multiple rolls) change, this is math 101 :)
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby Ratburntro44 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:18 pm

I think he was saying that your overall chance of winning with a boost is 0.471+0.471(1-0.471)=0.72 because the reroll gives you a chance to turn the loss into a win, so your overall winning chance is the chance of winning on first roll plus the chance of turning a loss into a win. I still can't explain where the 47.1% came from.
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby techgump » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:23 pm

Here is a decent article on this:
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/dice-play/Odds.htm
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Re: Upgrade Disable Compromise

Postby techgump » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:25 pm

I think he was saying that your overall chance of winning with a boost is 0.471+0.471(1-0.471)=0.72


I understand this, but it is incorrect. Read the article link above.
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