Upgrade Disable Compromise

[Ratburntro44]

But there's only a 47% chance of a second roll. Because you can only lose the second roll if you won the first roll, you take the probability of winning the first roll as defense (0.53) then multiply it by the probability of winning the second roll with defense (0.53)(0.53)=0.2809, approximately 28%. Even though this is the chance of winning overall, there is still a maximum of 100%, not 200%

Edit: Sorry, I meant 53%. I think all the other stuff other than that beginning sentence was accurate.

[techgump]

No, there is a 53% chance of a second roll. An attacker has a 47% chance of winning a single roll, otherwise, yes Rat and Darkar and whomever else chimed in specifically on this, you are right.

So I am going crazy. I had two write this out for it to sink in. Pfffffftttttt. That is my brain farting.

I as a attacker have a 47% chance to win a first roll. I as a attacker have a 47% chance to win the second roll. I as an attacker have a 72% probability of winning one of the two rolls.
I as a defender have a 53% chance to win a first roll. I as a defender have a 53% chance to win the second roll. I as an defender have a 28% probability of winning both rolls.

Even tho I am wrong (and I am definitely wrong as it's completely relevant in the fact that the attacker needs only one roll win, and the defender needs to win both... did I mention I hate being wrong?), who here can tell me they have a 72% ( approx 3 out of every 4) win of round rate with attack bonuses on equals (4x4, 5x5, 8x8, etc)? I surely don't. This is part of why I have been so stubborn; data does not match my experience.

[techgump]

Could someone also answer me this:
Is 72% as a round win probability for attacker also the same as saying:

The attacker has a 72% chance of rolling one win over two rolls.

[Darkas]

Your calculations are right.

This percentage is relevant with an attack boost, and it should meet your experience, but attack boost are not that much used.

The percentage for 7x7, 6x6, etc are slightly less likely to win for the attacker as it goes down, because an equality is more likely, but as first approximation it's quite right.

----

Could someone answer me this:
Is 72% as a round win probability for attacker also the same as saying:

The attacker has a 72% chance of rolling one win over two rolls.

rolling one win?

If you mean winning exactly one of two rolls it's wrong.
If you mean winning at least one of two rolls it's wrong.
If you mean winning the battle, you're right.
If you mean winning the first roll, or if you lose the first roll winning the second, you're right.

[Secondwind]

Don't make me laugh. Play me in something where the majority of games aren't decided by luck, then we'll talk, fancy a game of chess?

1. The majority of the games ARE NOT decided by luck. Any experienced player will tell you this. So don't pussy out now.

How adorable. You really believe a 1v1 isn't decided by luck? Anyone with a working brain can tell that isn't the case. Who's 'pussying out' I asked you to play me in a game of chess where intelligence is the only factor, I'll even let you choose to go first or second.

No matter how stupid you are, you can't honestly try and tell me a game that's almost entirely decided by luck in a 1v1 environment isn't based on luck. There is a single 'random' variable in chess, who goes first, and I'll let you choose rather than it be random. Otherwise it's entirely decided by skill, no randomly losing 8v4, or having multiple players team up against you etc.

2. The real fact remains, this is still very arguable. The math is a curiosity, but does not prove the point of importance, as you should know that much more goes into calculating the worth (a big deal or not), such as when and how boosts are used. Overall, the way I use them, they are not as big of a deal as the math seems to show. And again, even doing the math, seeing how we do not know Lopdo's alog, experience may be the best indicator of usefulness... not the math.

There are only two methods that make any sense. 1d(Nx6) and Nd6. The latter is more likely and is the method the math for this thread uses, the former is less likely and favors rerolls even more significantly.

And now you're going to try and tell me anecdotes are more useful than the math, oh you truly are adorable.

3. You may understand this probability concept well, but I can say with 100% certainty that you are very naive in other aspects of life. This does not make you stupid or an idiot; thinking so just shows one's own naivety and ignorance.

I don't think you even know what certainty means, your struggling to understand probability lends weight to this. Though I'd rather be 'naive' than stupid. Intelligence, is how quickly you learn, not how much you know or have experienced. An intelligent person can always learn and overcome any ignorance or naïveté, the idiot will just continue to be an idiot.

4. And what do you know about what basis Robomajor made his comment? I suppose you read minds too. In your words, "Who knew".

I don't know or care what the basis for his statement was, what I do know is that you replied to it which was the point. Mission accomplished?

[techgump]

Mission accomplished?

Well, I don't know what your mission was, other than to make yourself feel better about yourself by talking down to an idiot. Seems pretty idiotic.

[techgump]

As for the rest of you, thanks for extending your understanding and time. I understand. Also, is there then a formula to determine the chance of a win over one roll based on the number of dice sides. Best I can now figure, the higher the number of die sides, the more equal the odds become (over one roll). What was 47% and 53% produced from, 30 sides?

[vyor]

Defender chance of losing, that means losing both fight: (1-0.47)*(1-0.47)=28%

--> Sorry about that, my mistake, I wanted to write "Defender chance of winning, that means winning both fight: (1-0.47)*(1-0.47)=28%"

Dude, if I let you have infinite reroll each time you lose, will you have the same chance to win the battle that if you don't or not ? No, you will definitely win in every fight (if your chance of winning are not 0).
The chance of one roll is the same, but having the opportunity to reroll increases your chance of winning the fight overall !

This is wrong, I have seen too many posts to not know that gump is correct. If you roll infinite times the probabillity is still 50/50 (win/win). The outcome may not be the same(as with most cases the out come is not the same as probability) but you still only have a 50% chance of winning OR lossing. You still need alot of luck to win.

[Lopdo]

please don't start again... reread all posts, it is explained thoroughly

[MisterWinter]