The Moonlight Café

[GivinUDaHimelik]

Someguy, you have BBC code unchecked. Next time you go to edit your signature, uncheck the box that says "Disable BBC".

How did you figure that out?!

I'm homeschooled, I'm always figuring out stuff for myself.

[neoexdeath]

Someguy, you have BBC code unchecked. Next time you go to edit your signature, uncheck the box that says "Disable BBC".

How did you figure that out?!

I'm homeschooled, I'm always figuring out stuff for myself.

Hm.
That's good for you.

[GivinUDaHimelik]

Well, Trump won New Hampshire; at least Kasich got second!

[some guy7820]

Someguy, you have BBC code unchecked. Next time you go to edit your signature, uncheck the box that says "Disable BBC".

How did you figure that out?!

I'm homeschooled, I'm always figuring out stuff for myself.

maybe i should get homeschooled ty

[GivinUDaHimelik]

So I'm just curious, how many of you think Kasich actually has a chance at the nominee spot? I personally think it's between Trump and Cruz, but New Hampshire might just be the beginning for Kasich? or no?

[Autumnwolf17]

So I'm just curious, how many of you think Kasich actually has a chance at the nominee spot? I personally think it's between Trump and Cruz, but New Hampshire might just be the beginning for Kasich? or no?

I expect we'll have a better perspective of things by the end of the month. Remember, Bush, Kasich, and Rubio are all ideologically quite similar and are clearly drawing from the same voting pool; voters who are largely unlikely to switch to either Cruz or Trump. If one of them were to drop out, the other two would see a significant rise in the polls. If only one were left, no matter which one, then they would potentially be able to pass Trump.

At least one of them has to be a clear loser in South Carolina, then fail to recover in Nevada. I would have predicted it would be Kasich a week ago, but then Rubio messed up spectacularly and suddenly I think it might end up being him who loses. My tentative best guess is that Rubio's crowd goes mostly to Bush.

If this doesn't happen, then all three go on to split the vote in March. By then, it may be too late to recover. And in that case, based on Trump's phenomenally low net popularity ratings, I assume Cruz would be the eventual nominee. Or maybe that's just my hope talking. I don't know what I'd do if Trump actually became president.

[Autumnwolf17]

How each could win:

Spoiler: show

Trump - Everybody still currently running stays in the race until the end, keeping the anti-Trump vote split until it's too late to change anything.

Cruz - Everybody but Trump drops out and the anti-Trump vote is concentrated enough to put Cruz at the top.

Rubio - Rubio recovers from last debate and regains the momentum he had a week ago, allowing him to win either of the next two states decisively and challenge Cruz and Trump directly.

Bush - Rubio's mistake turns out to be unrecoverable and he drops out. Bush picks up his support and edges out Kasich before the end of the month.

Kasich - New Hampshire gives him just enough momentum to have a second strong showing in South Carolina (where he was previously at 2-3%).

Carson - All other candidates are found dead with knives stuck through their belt buckles. The killer is never identified.

[GivinUDaHimelik]

How each could win:

Spoiler: show

Trump - Everybody still currently running stays in the race until the end, keeping the anti-Trump vote split until it's too late to change anything.

Cruz - Everybody but Trump drops out and the anti-Trump vote is concentrated enough to put Cruz at the top.

Rubio - Rubio recovers from last debate and regains the momentum he had a week ago, allowing him to win either of the next two states decisively and challenge Cruz and Trump directly.

Bush - Rubio's mistake turns out to be unrecoverable and he drops out. Bush picks up his support and edges out Kasich before the end of the month.

Kasich - New Hampshire gives him just enough momentum to have a second strong showing in South Carolina (where he was previously at 2-3%).

Carson - All other candidates are found dead with knives stuck through their belt buckles. The killer is never identified.

I believe Kasich also has to win the Ohio primary in March, or at least come in close second to Trump. He loses to anyone else, and he may as well drop out of the race.

[Autumnwolf17]

But that's the thing, he needs to get there first. If he loses in South Carolina and Nevada, the pressure will be on for him to drop out before he has a chance to make it to Ohio.

Rubio got the endorsement of Nikki Haley today, so his chances of beating Bush and Kasich have gone way up.

[BeatlesFan]

I have decided to run for the vacant seat on the Supreme Court.

Feel free to ask me anything that you think might come up during my confirmation hearing so that I can practice for my interview.